The distilled spirits market beyond 2021: Trends, profit margins & more

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The distilled spirits industry is not for the faint of heart. For newcomers, it can cost hundreds of thousands of dollars just to get set up, and potentially millions more to get to market.

Even for old hands, competition, legal changes, and shifts in consumer behaviour can make distilled spirits a rocky business indeed. And of course, like in many industries, it was not immune to the downward pressure of the pandemic.

But for those willing to brave the market, it can be a dynamic and exciting space to be a part of. For those keen to dive in – or expand into new territory – understanding the lay of the land is key to success, and it’s that overview that we’ll take here.

The global spirits industry in numbers

6.2% drop in sales volume

Like many food and beverage manufacturing industries, the alcohol industry worldwide has taken a hit from the pandemic – whether from restaurant and bar closures, or restrictions on valuable export and import markets – global sales volume dropped 6.2% as the world locked down.

3% growth

Luckily, the wider market, along with spirits sales, is expected to start bouncing back in 2021 and beyond as restrictions ease. Sales for the alcohol market overall are forecasted to grow 3% in 2021. Spirit sales are expected to grow 0.6% in 2021, and at a compound annual growth rate (CAGW) of 0.8% until 2025.

$1.75 trillion

In 2018, the spirits market worldwide was worth US$1.47 trillion. By 2024, it is forecasted to grow to US$1.75 trillion.

Bottles of distilled spirits

Distilled spirits is expected to be a US$1.75 trillion industry by 2024.

The UK distilled spirit market in numbers

$19.48

The average cost of a bottle of spirits in the UK was US$19.48 (£13.08) as of 2019 – a 97% percent rise across the previous decade.

$8 billion in revenue

The market in the UK is worth US$8 billion (£5.7 billion). Despite hits from the pandemic, medium-term forecasts for the sector look positive, with revenue expected to hit $9.3 billion (£6.6 billion) by 2026.

23% profit margin

As more craft producers flood the market and squeeze the competition, profit margins in the country are expected to show a drop of 4.5 percentage points for the 2016-2021 period, to 23% down from 27.6% in the five years prior.

39.4% drop in export revenue

Due to the pandemic and resulting trade restrictions, spirit exports have taken a hit over the last year in the UK. The impacts are expected to result in a 39.4% drop in export revenue in 2021. Exports may start getting a boost from demand in Asia where markets are starting to open up.

$564 million in tariff losses

The Scottish Whiskey Association reckons the industry has lost US$564 million (£400 million) in sales due to the hefty 25% import tariff imposed in the US. The tariff was put in place in 2019 as part of wider tariffs on European products.

Whiskey in glasses

US tariffs have cost the Scottish Whiskey industry some $564 million.

The Australian spirit market in numbers:

$2.1 billion

Revenue for the spirits market in Australia is $2.1 billion, and is expected to rise to $2.4 billion by 2026.

50% increase

Avoiding some potentially major Covid-related impacts, spirit exports from Australia to the US shot up by 50% in 2019-20. In terms of imports, spirits from other countries are expected to make up more than 30% of customer demand in 2020-21.11.5% profit margin

Spirit profit margins in Australia sit at 11.5% – half that of its UK counterpart. For SMEs, the profit margin is 5.2%.

5% tariff

A new free-trade agreement between the UK and Australia means that a 5% tariff on Scottish Whisky exported from Britain will become a thing of the past. Exports of Scotch whiskey to Australia has nearly doubled over the past decade, and the trade agreement is expected to drive more.

The New Zealand spirit market in numbers:

15.5 million litres

From 2003 to 2020, the volume of spirits available to drink across New Zealand shot up by nearly 65% to 15.5 million litres. When spirit-based drinks are added to the mix the volume rises to just under 90 million litres.

31.6% of total alcoholic drinks consumed

Of the alcohol that New Zealand dwellers consume overall, the percentage of spirits-based drinks has grown from 23% in 2005, to 32% last year – likely in part because of the popularity of ready to drink products (RTDs) with younger consumers.

7% ABV limit

The industry avoided government legislation back in 2010 to limit the alcohol percentage of spirit-based ready-to-drink RTDs to 5%, instead setting a self-imposed limit of 7% per bottle or can, with labels clearly showing how many drinks were in each.

3.4% retail margin

Liquor retailers in New Zealand have a profit margin of 3.4%.

$1000 per bottle

The cost of a bottle of tequila made by the only tequila producer in New Zealand, TeKiwi 100% Blue Agave Tequilana Spirit, is a hefty NZD$1000. The play on words comes from the fact that the word Tequila is reserved for producers in certain regions of Mexico.

Spirits-based drink

Spirits-based drinks make up 32% of all alcoholic drinks consumed in New Zealand – up from 23% in 2005.

The US spirit market in numbers

$68 billion

The spirits market in the US was valued at US$68 billion in 2020. Bourbon, Tennessee whiskey, and rye whiskey sales rose by US$327 million (8.2%) in the same year.

39% of online sales

By 2024, spirits are expected to make up 39% of web-based alcohol sales, with trends such as online cocktail-making courses on the rise, particularly during the pandemic.

281 million cases of hard seltzer

The number of nine-litre cases of hard seltzer drinks sold in the US is expected to triple by 2023 to 281 million, driven in part by its appeal from more health-conscious consumers with its lower calorie count and sugar content.

7.6% rise in premium spirits

The trend towards quality spirits in recent years has seen a corresponding rise in revenue, with the intake from high-end premium products growing by 7.6% in 2019, and super-premium products by 7.9%.

23.1%

Japanese whisky has become one of the most popular spirits for US consumers, making up 23% of overall spirit consumption, only second to mezcal (40%) and ahead of Irish Whiskey, Tequila, and Cognac.

92.38 million gallons

In 2020, the number of gallons of distilled spirits exported from the US reached 92.3 million gallons, up from 80.7 in 2015.

Japanese whiskey

Japanese whiskey and hard seltzers are two major trends in the US market.

The Chinese spirit market in numbers

604 million litres

In April of 2021, Chinese distillers made 604 million litres of spirits, down 2.4% from last year, potentially because of a trend away from the low-end baijiu market.

$17.6 billion

Chinese manufacturer Kweichow Moutai, the company which surpassed industry giant Diageo as the world’s most valuable liquor firm in recent years, is expected to make US$17.6 billion in revenue this year.

96% of market share

The most popular spirit in China by far, baijiu – a clear fiery liquor made popular by Chairman Mao in the 70s – made up 96% of sales in China in 2019. In comparison, brandy and whiskey make up just 4% of the market combined.

$133.8 billion

In 2020, revenues for the spirits market amounted to US$133.8 billion in China. By 2025, they are forecasted to reach US$167.2 billion.

22% of global sales

The Chinese market accounts for a sizeable chunk of the global market. In 2019, it accounted for 22% of spirit sales worldwide.

Global spirits by type: value, imports, and exports

Vodka

The vodka market was valued at US$46 billion in 2019 and is expected to rise by 8.81 billion by 2024. The largest importer of Vodka is the US, and the largest exporter is Sweden.

Rum

In 2018, the global rum market was worth US$15.2 billion. This is expected to rise by nearly 20% by 2026. Germany is both the largest importer and exporter of the spirit. Italy is the second largest importer and the US is the second largest exporter.

Whiskey

The whiskey market worldwide was worth US$61.7 billion in 2019 and is expected to reach nearly US$96 billion by 2026. The US is the largest importer in the market, and the UK is the largest exporter.

Tequila

In 2020, the global tequila market was valued at more than US$5 billion. That figure is expected to rise by US$1.6 billion by 2026. The largest importer of the spirit is the US, followed by Germany.

Gin

The gin market was worth around US$9 billion in 2019 and is expected to rise to more than US$11 billion by 2024. The US is the largest importer of the spirit, and the UK is the largest exporter.

Brandy

In 2020, the brandy market reached a value of US$21 billion. The US was the world’s largest importer of grape-based spirits, and France was the biggest exporter.

craft distilling

Two major trends in the distilled alcohol industry are the rise of craft distilling, and celebrity owned and endorsed brands.

Global spirit trends

Craft spirits growing rapidly

As with the beer market, craft distillers are now an important part of the overall industry, as more and more consumers seek out custom and premium beverages, with new, interesting, and organic ingredients. In the US alone the number of craft distilleries in 2018 rose by 15% to 1,835. Over the next four years it is expected to see a CAGR growth of more than 18%.

High-end and super-premium products

Similar to craft spirits and the move toward more boutique products, there is a notable trend in the market toward luxury spirits, with many consumers choosing these over lower-end drinks. Between 2014 and 2018, higher-end spirits grew at a CAGR of 7%, compared to the spirits market overall, which grew by 2%.

Celebrity brands

Profit and brand opportunities in the spirits market have become a huge draw to celebrities in recent years. A-listers like George Clooney (Casamigos tequila) and Ryan Reynolds (Aviator Gin) have pulled in top dollar for their products. Respectively, the stars have sold their businesses for US$1 billion and US$610 million. The trend doesn’t look likely to slow, with other big names like Kendall Jenner, Dwayne ‘The Rock’ Johnson, Ellie Goulding, Bruno Mars, and ex-basketball star Scotty Pippin all entering the space.

Online drinking

The global pandemic drove people around the world even further online where many consumers did their grocery shopping, socialising, work, and of course, drinking. Spirits brands and their wider alcohol industry counterparts were sure to find opportunities in the space while revenues from restaurants, bars, and shops dropped, such as cocktail making classes, virtual distillery tours, and online tastings. While the future of these avenues remains to be seen post-pandemic, like many of the changes brought on by the crisis, it’s likely that at least some of these will continue to stick.

Ready-to-Drink spirits

The RTD market has seen huge growth over the last several years. Everything from hard seltzers and pre-mixed cocktails are gaining popularity as consumers look for products that are light, drinkable, and portable – and that can be enjoyed over longer periods of time. Producers have been taking note; between 2019 and 2020 alone, nearly 2,000 new RTD drinks were introduced to market. Innovation in the space will likely continue with the introduction of new flavour combinations and ingredients added to the mix. In the US, sales of hard seltzers, which have enjoyed particular popularity in recent times, are set to more than triple by 2023.

hand sanitiser

Many distilleries have recently pivoted into making hand sanitiser.

Cannabis-based spirits

Several years ago, millions of dollars were poured into the cannabis-based drinks market. The excitement seemed to have been tempered by the pandemic, but investors are keeping an eye on opportunities as more of the US and countries around the world legalise the drug and open up market space for it. Big brands like Molson Coors, and Heineken-owned Lagunitas and Pabst have launched cannabis infused drinks in recent years. With the sales of cannabis beverages expected to reach US$210 million in 2021 in the US alone, it’s certainly a space to watch.

Botanicals

Look in any liquor store and it’s not hard to see that herb, flower, and spiced-flavoured drinks are all the rage. Mixing drinks with different flavours has become something of a fascination for cocktail enthusiasts, and the market is drinking it up. Gin has been one of the most dominant spirits in the botanicals space, with drinks flavoured with everything from lavender and orange blossom to mint and rosemary. But other markets like rum are hot on the trail with a huge mix of flavour combinations and spiced drinks.

In the UK alone, sales of spiced and flavoured rums were up 80% from 2014-2019. And the trend is continuing outwards, with the global plant-based drinks market forecasted to hit US$33.9 billion by 2026. Hard kombucha is another RTD which has gained popularity in recent years, benefitting from a growing consumer focus on health and wellness. The fermented tea-based drink is expected to reach sales of US$7 billion by 2027.

Hand sanitisers

Potentially a pandemic-only trend, distillers struggling with the impacts of the crisis soon cottoned on to an opportunity to use their products for something the world just couldn’t do without over the last year – hand sanitiser. Many businesses – including big names like Diageo and Pernod Ricard, rushed to contribute to the alcohol-based products market, with many donating at least a portion of the goods as global supplies dwindled. Whether businesses continue making the products post-pandemic remains to be seen, but the trend will be looked back on as an interesting example of how the world changed in 2020.

Sources used in this article:

More about the author:

Greg Roughan - Unleashed Software
Greg Roughan

Article by Greg Roughan in collaboration with our team of inventory management and business specialists. Greg has been writing, publishing and working with content for more than 20 years. His writing motto is 'don't be boring'. His outdoors motto is ''I wish I hadn't brought my headtorch', said nobody, ever'. He lives in Auckland, New Zealand, with his family.

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